Oil prices may rise to $100 a barrel by end of year
Oil prices could rise towards $100 per barrel towards the end of the year or by early 2019 as sanctions against Iran bite. This was predicted by commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria said on Monday at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore. We’re on the verge of some significant volatility in Q4 2018 because depending on the severity and duration of the Iranian sanctions, the market simply does not have an adequate supply response for a 2.0 million barrel a day disappearance of oil from the markets. Crude oil prices could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and to $100 by the New Year as markets tighten. Oil prices LCOc1 have been rising since early 2017, when the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) together with other suppliers including Russia started withholding output to lift crude values. The threats of disruption as well as the early supply cuts have helped to lift Brent crude futures to nearly $80 a barrel this month, a level not seen since 2014. With US sanctions against Iran, the third-largest producer in OPEC, looming, US investment bank JP Morgan said in its latest market outlook that “a spike to $90 per barrel is likely. OPEC and other oil producers are considering raising output by 500,000 bpd to counter falling supply from Iran.
BD offers duty benefit to five APTA states
Bangladesh has offered duty benefit on import of 602 products from five countries under Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA). APTA member countries – India, China, Lao PDR (Laos), Republic of Korea (South Korea) and Sri Lanka – will enjoy concessional rates of Customs Duty (CD) ranging from 10 per cent to 70 per cent. The National Board of Revenue (NBR) Customs Wing issued a Statutory Regulatory Order (SRO), dated September 18, 2018, in this regard. The SRO has been issued with a retrospective effect from July 1, 2018. APTA is the oldest preferential trade agreement among the Asia-Pacific countries, based on the Bangkok Agreement, signed in 1975. Although APTA came into effect from November 1, 2005, the volume of trade under the deal is not yet significant. Out of its total US$ 51.50 billion import, Bangladesh brought goods worth around $ 16 billion from China and Hong Kong and $ 9.0 billion from India in last fiscal year (FY), 2017-18. Of the 602 products under concessional duty, 598 products are for all member countries. China in general slashed duty on 2,191 products, South Korea on 2,797, Sri Lanka on 598 and Laos on 999 products. India waived tariff on 48 products, China on 181 products, and Sri Lanka on 75 products for both Bangladesh and Laos. South Korea has cut duty up to 100 per cent on 951 products for Bangladesh.
India plans to use BD waterway for a freight corridor
The Indian government is working on a plan to set up a waterway freight corridor to connect the mainland with the northeastern states via Bangladesh at a cost of Indian rupees 50 billion. The proposed 900-km waterway would be used to transport freight from the northern and eastern states to the northeast and would start near Haldia in West Bengal. the waterway could help reduce the cost of transportation by about 70 per cent. The Indian government is already developing a waterway along the Ganga river between Haldia and Allahabad (1,620 km) at a cost of Rs 45 billion. This link will also be utilised for trade between India and Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh share a 4,095-km border, of which 1,116 km is along rivers. India plans to develop two ports each on the west and east coasts as transshipment hubs.
DSE advises investors not to rely on social media information
The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has advised the investors not to rely on any information from an ‘unauthorised’ source like social media. Investors should not rely on any information from an unauthorised sources such as Facebook, WhatsApp, Viber, Linkedin etc
The DSE does not publish market data through any social media pages. If anyone spreads information based on rumor, using patent of DSE, the person will be held liable under the Copyright Act, 2000. It shall be treated as punishable offence under Section-17 of the Securities and Exchange Ordinance, 1969,” said the DSE disclosure.
ONE Bank signs deal with Third Wave Technologies
ONE Bank Limited signed an agreement with Third Wave Technologies Limited (Nagad). Under this agreement ONE Bank Limited will facilitate “Nagad” with nationwide distributors’ collection through OBL branch network. The high officials of both the organisations were also present on the occasion.
Two more PCBs to open offices in HK
Two more private commercial banks (PCBs) are going to set up representative offices in Hong Kong with no objection from the central bank. The PCBs are Exim Bank Ltd and The City Bank Ltd. The central bank issued the no-objection certificate to City Bank on Sunday. The Exim Bank received such certificate last week. The banks will have to apply to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, asking for permission to set up representative offices in the Chinese special administrative region. The PCBs want to facilitate foreign trade by offering different products to exporters and importers through an office in the global financial hub. The City Bank will seek Hong Kong’s permission to set up the representative office shortly. Representative offices help strengthen business activities, particularly in China, the No. one trading partner of Bangladesh. Bangladesh imported goods worth $10.19 billion from China, which was 25.2 per cent of its total imports, in fiscal year 2016-17.
Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to top agenda
Dhaka and New Delhi will look to heighten the possibility of signing the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two countries during Indian commerce minister’s visit to Bangladesh starting today. The duty issues may dominate the discussions as local exporters have been facing challenges after India imposed the anti-dumping duty of $19-$352 on jute and jute goods in January last year. New Delhi has imposed 12.5 percent countervailing duty on garment items despite allowing duty-free access to all goods from Bangladesh except some alcoholic and beverage items since 2011. Garment exporters are finding it hard to capture a larger share of India’s $50 billion domestic apparel market. Currently, India accepts the BSTI certification for 14 goods. The balance of bilateral trade between the two countries is heavily tilted towards India as Bangladesh largely depends on Indian cotton, fabrics, machinery, chemical products, food items and industrial raw materials. In 2017-18, Bangladesh exported goods worth $873.27 million and imported goods worth $8.61 billion, according to data from the commerce ministry. It is believed that goods worth nearly $6 billion enter Bangladesh from India through unofficial channels every year.
Banks’ deposit base expands slightly
Banks’ aggressive drive for funds has finally pushed up the deposit growth, easing the cash crunch that has crippled the banking sector in recent months. The average deposit growth in the industry stood at 11.29 percent in June, in contrast to 10.62 percent in December last year, according to data from the Bangladesh Bank. At the end of June, deposits in the banking sector totalled Tk 10,59,669 crore. The deposit growth improved as banks are aggressively collecting deposits to bring down the loan-deposit ratio in line with new authorised limit of 83.5 percent. The deposit growth of the state banks stood at 8.50 percent in June, up from 6.46 percent in December last year. Private banks’ deposit growth was 12.73 percent in June, in contrast to 12.58 percent six months earlier. The state-owned banks are giving 6 percent interest rate for deposits in line with the ABB’s decision. The new banks are offering 8 to 9 percent interest rate against deposits. The deposit rate of scam-hit Farmers Bank was 9.62 percent in July, the highest amongst all banks. Despite offering the highest rate, the bank’s deposit growth was negative 15 percent in June. The average deposit rate of NRB Global Bank was 9.41 percent as of July, the second highest. Its deposit growth was 26.28 percent in the same month, according to central bank data.
Chinese investors keen on power sector
Chinese investors are keen to park their funds in Bangladesh’s power sector as there is a huge room for investment. 21 power sector experts of Bangladesh were provided 20 days of training in China. As per the power sector master plan, Bangladesh needs $9 billion investment every year until 2041. The government has set a target to increase power generation to 60,000 megawatt (MW) by 2041, 40,000 MW by 2030 and 24,000 MW by 2021. In total, $150 billion of investment would be needed until 2041, meaning there are ample financing opportunities for China in Bangladesh’s power sector. Independent power producers hold great investment opportunities as the government has a target to generate 10 percent of the total power from renewable energy sources.
Microsoft, Amazon, Google join fight to prevent famine
Tech giants Microsoft, Amazon and Google are joining forces with international organizations to help identify and head off famines in developing nations using data analysis and artificial intelligence. Rather than waiting to respond to a famine after many lives already have been lost, the tech firms will use the predictive power of data to trigger funding to take action before it. Google, Microsoft and Amazon Web Services and other technology firms are providing expertise to develop a suite of analytical models called “Artemis” that uses AI and machine learning to estimate and forecast worsening food security crises in real-time. These forecasts will help guide and promote decision makers to respond earlier. The FAM will initially be rolled out in a small group of vulnerable countries building up to ultimately provide global coverage. On October 13, leaders dedicated to this initiative will gather as part of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bali, Indonesia to discuss further implementation.
Local and Global Stock Indices *
|Index Name||Close Value||Value Change||Percentage Change|
|DSEX|| 5357.54807 || ↓50.00|| ↓0.82%|
|DJIA||26,562.05|| ↓181.45 ||↓0.68%|
World Commodities *
|Commodity||Close Value||Value Change||Percentage Change|
|Crude Oil (WTI)||$ 72.26||↑0.18||↑0.25%|
|Crude Oil (Brent)||$ 81.41||↑0.21||↑0.26%|
Major Currencies Exchange Rates Movement in Last Seven Days *
|USD 1||BDT 83.7473|
|GBP 1||BDT 109.7425|
|EUR 1||BDT 98.3277|
|INR 1||BDT 1.1495|
*CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES ARE TAKEN FROM BLOOMBERG.